Timeline for What capabilities must SpaceX develop prior to the uncrewed Starship missions to Mars in 2026 in order to enable a Mars human landing mission in 2028?
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| Nov 19 at 9:50 | comment | added | Slarty | I think a lot of older people do, especially those who can remember the Moon landings and those who don't follow the space program closely. But perhaps you are right. If so, NASA either needs to be split up, shut down or transformed because when the first SpaceX astronaut steps foot on Mars and NASA are asked to comment by the press, talking about SLS is not going to go down well. | |
| Nov 19 at 0:06 | comment | added | Starship | @Slarty Does anyone seriously regard NASA as a leader in Space Exploration who is reasonably informed on the subject? Outside of building payloads for science, they literally can't do anything remotely useful. Starship has effectively reached orbit (it's quite obvious that it could) | |
| Nov 18 at 19:57 | comment | added | Slarty | Some interesting points. May be NASA won't be involved. But if so then NASA will no longer regarded as a leader in space exploration and discovery - just an also ran. May be Elon Musk's claims about Starship reuse and cost will meet expectations, but it hasn't even reached orbit yet so we shall have to wait and see if and when that happens. NASA's current focus may (or may not change under the new administration). There would not be time for a complete start to finish demonstration, in 2026 but there are a wide range of options and approaches perhaps some could be carried out in parallel? | |
| Nov 18 at 0:50 | comment | added | Steve Pemberton | There has been no announcement that NASA is planning to send any of its astronauts on SpaceX's 2029 Starship human landings on Mars. NASA's current focus is on the 2026 Starship human landings on the Moon. | |
| Nov 17 at 22:46 | comment | added | Starship | @Slarty Now keep in mind that this is excluding the cost of whatever stuff are sent to Mars before people come (and the 1 time cost of the stuff only needed for the first trip). But, still, given that an estimate 100 people will go on each mission, that's a cost as low as $124,500 per ticket. That suggests SpaceX could make a huge profit margin...Anyways the point of this was that this would get very profitable very fast without NASA and anyways Musk has a net worth of like 300 billion. | |
| Nov 17 at 22:41 | comment | added | Starship | @Slarty I suspect it won't, because involving NASA will mean SpaceX has to listen to NASA to some extent and be peppered with regulations and rules to the point they can't do anything. Starship currently costs $90 million to build and is estimated to get down to $20 million without reuse. With 100 reuses, it could get as low as 2.4 million. If we releastically assume Starships (with a 2 year turnaround) will only get reused 10 times, that bring my estimate to 2.85 million. But theres also an estimated 4 tanker launches. That brings the cost to 12.45 million. | |
| Nov 17 at 22:14 | comment | added | Slarty | @Starship Yes this is true, although IMO it seems likely that the first crewed mission to Mars would carry NASA astronauts. Because any such mission to Mars would be very expensive (even with Starship) and would likely need Government sponsorship of some sort. And any SpaceX mission to Mars without NASA involvement would devastate the image of NASA. So I suspect that something would be worked out, but we shall see... | |
| Nov 17 at 21:47 | comment | added | Starship | I'd like to point out that NASA has no control over what SpaceX does unless they're launching their payloads/astronauts. | |
| Nov 17 at 17:34 | comment | added | Slarty | Yes! - acronyms expanded. Is ISRU the only way? Probably not (although I haven't done the calculations so it's an opinion). They could probably muscle it by sending a lot more Starships to Mars with a range of options such as low Mars orbit tankers, small Mars ascent transfer vehicles etc. But I suspect that they will have their work cut out just sending a couple of ships with all of the refilling required. Point 9 might be accomplished by a flight around the Moon followed by an extra propulsive boost (although you are probably right). Point 10 items need to fly in 26 to test them for 28. | |
| Nov 17 at 17:21 | history | edited | Slarty | CC BY-SA 4.0 |
Acronyms explained
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| Nov 17 at 13:20 | comment | added | Steve Pemberton | Is ISRU the only way in 2026 for a Starship to launch back towards Earth with enough delta-v? Is it impossible to send tankers with enough fuel either to the surface or to Mars orbit? Hard to say what Starship payload capacity will be in 2026, seems less likely block 3 and Raptor 3 will be ready in 2026, but the question is about what is possible not what is likely. Also note that point 9 cannot be accomplished before the 2028 launch. Some of the points in 10 aren't really needed until 2028, good to see what's needed in 2028 also, but for clarity better if listed separately from 2026. | |
| Nov 17 at 10:00 | history | answered | Slarty | CC BY-SA 4.0 |