Elon Musk has said that he's planning to launch two uncrewed BFR rockets to Mars by 2022. And of course there would be some test launches even before that. For such an enormous project, I don't see how this is even possible. Also, the Falcon Heavy got delayed for a long time due to unexpected engineering difficulties so I don't see why this shouldn't be the same. So what do you guys think is a reasonable expectation for the first launch of the BFR? I'm not saying first Mars mission, just first launch.


closed as primarily opinion-based by Organic Marble, ForgeMonkey, Nathan Tuggy, JCRM, uhoh Dec 10 '17 at 1:34

Many good questions generate some degree of opinion based on expert experience, but answers to this question will tend to be almost entirely based on opinions, rather than facts, references, or specific expertise. If this question can be reworded to fit the rules in the help center, please edit the question.

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    $\begingroup$ While I agree with your sentiment, I fear this question is "primarily opinion based". $\endgroup$ – Organic Marble Dec 9 '17 at 15:40
  • $\begingroup$ @OrganicMarble I think there is a relative clear estimated timeline and plans, etc. $\endgroup$ – peterh says reinstate Monica Dec 9 '17 at 17:06
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    $\begingroup$ I took the question to be asking about the probability of making that timeline. $\endgroup$ – Organic Marble Dec 9 '17 at 17:17
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    $\begingroup$ @peterh the problem is "answers to this question will tend to be almost entirely based on opinions". One user could post "it will take at least 20 years!" and defend it well, while another user could "Musk can pull it off in 2022!" and argue it well also. In that case there is no clear consensus or good answer. Stackexchange avoids that kind of question. It doesn't mean it's not a good question, just that it's not suitable for SE. $\endgroup$ – uhoh Dec 10 '17 at 1:38