# What are the chances a space probe will make it to another star without hitting a bit of space dust?

tl;dr: What is the density of "space dust" or micrometeorites in interstellar space, and how likely is it that a tiny interstellar craft could avoid hitting any?

In a future time we will likely figure out how to accelerate a usable space probe to 0.1c and shoot it to Alpha Centuri, considering there is already serious work being done on this topic.

If such a craft hits a particle, even something smaller than a grain of sand, it will probably be game-over for it (0.5*0.67mg*(0.1c)^2 = 300,000,000 joules, which is about a ton of TNT).

Considering that there are a lot of micrometeorites, at least around earth, and navigation at 0.1c is fairly difficult, what would be the chance of a space probe making it through interstellar space?

• How should we know the density of interstellar dust? It is not measurable using telescopes. There is too few data from spaceprobes. By the way, a ton of TNT is equivalent to 4.184 · 10^9 J or 4,184,000,000 joules. So your particle should be a lot heavier.
– Uwe
Apr 1, 2019 at 15:53
• Isaac Arthur did a YouTube video on this. I forget which one (an early one). The chances depend on the size of the particle (it decreases with increase in size). But I think the chance of not hitting something is basically zero. You need frickin' lasers! Apr 3, 2019 at 14:34
• – uhoh
Oct 3, 2023 at 12:44