Hmmm... this is too close to be a coincidence. These are from about four months ago:
and this just happened:
The question asks:
...what is the likelihood that a portion of this material will reach the surface and not completely burn up on its way down?
It seems that the likelihood is low if SpaceX can help it!
SpaceX's Falcon Heavy's first demonstration mission was to add junk to space (but to its credit it is not likely to affect Earth any time soon.)
But also see:
If the number of questions here about a car past Mars is any gauge, there will be great notice of Starship's first stunt.
SpaceX's Starship's first demonstration mission could have a useful capability to remove junk from space and this was just eluded to a few months ago
Here's a video of Patrick Lucas Austin, Time Technology Columnist interviewing Gwynne Shotwell, president and chief operating officer of SpaceX just a few weeks earlier, cued at
Q: In a more literal sense, Space is littered with a lot of dead things you know, I’m talking space debris. Is SpaceX considering any new technology or even new policy to combat…
A: In fact the Starlink program was a great opportunity to have a pretty big voice in that and also learn our own lessons1... as you mentioned there’s rocket bodies littering the space environment and dead satellites littering the space environment... And I do want to put in a plug for Starship here. Starship is an extraordinary new vehicle capability. Not only will it decrease the cost of access to space... but it also has the capability of taking cargo and crew at the same time, so it’s quite possible that we could leverage Starship to go to some of these dead rocket bodies (other people’s rockets of course!) basically go pick up some of this junk in outer space. (emphasis added)
1cf. https://astronomy.stackexchange.com/q/34219/7982 (based on a Shotwell quote)
The video Engineering Today video SpaceX Starship could be used to clean up Space Debris discusses the failed (EOM), large, ESA satellite Envisat (also here).
From Ashwati Das's spacegeneration
interview of Shotwell:
A: If we were to have a satellite that was going to be troublesome, what I would love to do is think about using the Starship capability to go pick up the space debris. And I know that that’s really hard and it’s very much kind-of a futuristic concept, but I definitely think that that’s something worth pursuing. So we wouldn’t service the satellite, but it would be great to go up and “grab it” and bring it back.