Inspired by How to calculate degrees above/below horizon? (For KiNET-X rocket getting to an altitude of over 200 miles.) and this NASA article/blog post, specifically this paragraph:
The vapor will be released approximately 9 minutes and 30 seconds to around 10 minutes after launch at about 217-249 miles altitude over the Atlantic Ocean and 540-560 miles downrange from Wallops and just north of Bermuda.[emphasis mine]
And this image showing ascent visibility:
I pixel mapped the centers of the different circles (they are not concentric!) and thus inferred a ground track of the vehicle:
The red points are the centre of each circle, progressing out over the ocean as expected, except they decidedly do not point towards "just north of Bermuda":
The upper line is the heading using only the first two inferred ground track points and points towards "just north of Bermuda". Here are the 540 & 560 mile range markers for extra reference:
What is causing this discrepancy? Could it be a projection mis-match from my flat, pixel-mapped circles to the rounded map (Google Earth) used in the ascent visibility visualization (first picture)?