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If NASA were to apply the safety standards it is using on the CCtCAP program (Dragon V2 and CST-100 now chosen) would Soyuz meet those standards?
I suppose it helps if we are clear on what the safety standards are?
Much of it is paperwork, and for Soyuz, at this point in time, test flights are obviously not relevant (hundreds of manned flights so far?) and has an abort system.
But would Soyuz 'pass'?
As I noted in my answer to a similar question on Orion, Soyuz is immune. The US human ratings standards apply to vehicles developed on behalf of NASA, and to non-US vehicles that would dock with the US side of the International Space Station. (Note that there are no such vehicles, and none are planned.)
The Soyuz is built by Russia, launched by Russia using Russian-built launch vehicles, and docks with the Russian side of the ISS. The NASA human safety ratings rules don't apply to Soyuz. NASA has to abide by Russia's rules when NASA contracts with Russia to use Russian vehicles to fly US astronauts to the ISS.
To make my answer a bit more on-target, there is no way that Soyuz could pass US safety requirements, for at least two reasons.
One is that Russia has its own engineering concepts of how to address safety and reliability, and those are rather different from those used in the US. I'm not saying Soyuz isn't safe, and I'm not passing judgement on the approaches used in the US versus those used in Russia. They're just different. Meeting the US safety standards would necessarily entail Russia switching to a US-style of documentation, data capture, traceability, testing, verification, and validation. For one thing, that would be ridiculously expensive. For another, Russia is a rather proud nation. It's not going to happen.
Another issue is that for Russia to comply with those US safety concepts, Russia would necessarily have to divulge a lot of Russian military secrets to NASA. That's even less likely to happen than Russia switching to a US-style of documentation, data capture, traceability, testing, verification, and validation.
No. For example, one of the CCDev (Commercial Crew Development) key requirements includes: Deliver and return four crew and their equipment. Soyuz capsule only has the capacity to cram three astronauts / cosmonauts at a time.
Refer to Commercial Crew Program: Key Driving Requirements Walkthrough (Powerpoint presentation), which starts off with:
Three Primary Functions of the spacecraft in support of this:
- Deliver and return four crew and their equipment
- Provide Assured Crew Return in the event of an emergency
- Serve as a 24-hour Safe Haven in the event of an emergency
And continues:
The CTS shall be capable of exchanging up to four NASA ISS crewmembers every 150 to 210 days. (3.1.2.4; R.CTS.13)
Of course, Soyuz spacecraft also isn't American (US domestic) vehicle and is not a part of a NASA's COTS (Commercial Orbital Transportation Services) program.
