Ars Technica's All hail the Ariane 5 rocket, which doubled the Webb telescope’s lifetime says:
Because ten years seemed like a fairly short operational period for such an expensive and capable space telescope, NASA had already been contemplating a costly and risky robotic refueling mission. But now that should not be necessary, as Webb has at least two decades of life.
I wonder if this is referring to water-cooler talk or some casual discussions, or if there was an official study and a document somewhere we can read.