# Questions tagged [prediction]

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3 votes
0 answers
174 views

### Predicting the ground path of a satellite's shadow

Given the orbital parameters of a satellite, how can I predict the ground path of its shadow? (The path from where it will appear to transit the Sun).
• 73
12 votes
4 answers
4k views

### Have any bits of a space mission ever collided with a planet or large moon (not Earth) that was not a target of the mission?

For example, a mission to Mars for which some bit of hardware ended up entering Venus's atmosphere. Has this ever happened, or at least are there projections that it may happen?
5 votes
1 answer
324 views

### How can uncertainty about the position of an object decrease over time?

The Near-Earth Objects Coordination Centre predicts future close approaches with Earth, for example these approaches for 2010RF12. For example, the time uncertainty of the 2022-09-23 closest approach ...
• 153
0 votes
0 answers
138 views

### How to calculate future true anomaly for hyperbolic trajectory? Did I make a mistake in my calculations?

I'm trying to calculate future spacecraft's position and velocity at time t. I need to calculate the true anomaly at time t for this. I've already made it for the elliptic orbits and it is working ...
• 604
3 votes
1 answer
297 views

### Do reentering capsules always make a(n Earth-shattering ka-)boom and look like a fireball if at night? Time & epicenter predictable w/ public info?

SpaceX enjoys press. So the unexpected events popping up in the news is good for them. March 26, 2021: Fire ball burning over Woodland WA- SpaceX second stage re-entry and burn up. A ‘spectacular’ ...
• 149k
2 votes
1 answer
390 views

### Finding the new true anomaly after performing a maneuver

Given a standard set of orbital elements (angular momentum, semi-major axis, eccentricity, inclination, longitude of the ascending node, argument of periapsis, and true anomaly), and a global time ...
2 votes
0 answers
100 views

### General rule for predicting Kessler syndrome

Let's say that we have a gradient for density of orbiting bodies by altitude. And we also have their relative size dispersion. Is there any general rule (or preferably a neat formula) for predicting ...
• 191
5 votes
2 answers
1k views

### Sun-synchronous satellite orbit propagation

I'm trying to propagate the orbit of a sun-synchronous satellite. The initial data is defined by the TLE. The orbit of the satellite is controlled by the operator ...
6 votes
0 answers
117 views

### Any algorithmic models of our solar system to predict positions relative to earth?

I'm looking for a map/model of the movements of our solar system and associated moons. What are the 'best' algorythmic models to represent our solar system. Looking to write a game/edutainment app ...
6 votes
3 answers
497 views

### How can a solar storm be predicted?

Satellites like DSCOVR are used to predict solar storms. How does that work? If the satellite is orbiting L1 and "watches" the sun, how can the signal be back on earth before a storm arrives? How ...
• 1,636
3 votes
2 answers
344 views

### How do you compare a simulation with a fitted orbit?

I am very confused with regards the simulation and fitting of satellite orbits. For example, how does one compare the results of a numerically integrated force model with an orbit that has been ...
5 votes
2 answers
336 views

### Is the utility PREDICT good enough for operational orbital prediction?

I'm looking for a cheap and cheerful, but ultimately working utility or library for tracking a cubesat and predicting link windows. I've been looking at using Orekit. I'm a student, so a lot of its ...
• 151
6 votes
1 answer
305 views

### What theories is Juno expected to confirm?

According to the Wikipedia article on Juno, the data that Juno returns will sift through multiple competing theories for Jupiter's formation. However the more theories that one has, the more likely ...
19 votes
2 answers
3k views

### How accurately (maximum possible accuracy) can future satellite positions be predicted?

Agencies/organizations who own/operate satellites want to know their future positions after a certain amount of time. We know that models of satellite dynamics are imperfect and also perturbations ...
• 1,931
12 votes
1 answer
12k views

### How does SGP4 work?

For calculating orbital state vectors of satellites, SGP4 (simplified perturbations model) is often used in conjunction with two-line element sets to calculate future positions of orbiting objects. ...
• 5,928
13 votes
1 answer
2k views

### How accurate are modern ephemerides, and how does their accuracy degrade over time?

I was reading about what is involved in making an ephemeris and wondered about this. Feeling I'd read pieces that extrapolated orbits over many thousands of years, I looked for an example and found ...
• 21.4k