The long term prospects for the integrity of the Roadster and to a lesser extent its seat belted occupant have been addressed in the answers and discussion below Can I drive Elon Musk's Tesla after it's been in space for 100 Years? However, what about the object's orbit itself?

Must said previously that the orbit will be stable for billions of years. Now that its orbit is closer to the asteroid belt, is there a collision risk? Could the proximity to Jupiter change its orbit, sending it flying into the Sun?

After all, Jupiter's influence on other objects in the asteroid belt are well known.

  • $\begingroup$ Collision risks are ubiquitous but negligible. Orbit will definitely change over time and can only be predicted precisely for a comparatively short amount of time, after that you need "calibration" (i.e. get to know exact location and velocity at one point). This is all unrelated to the last two questions which have been addressed here: space.stackexchange.com/questions/24365/… $\endgroup$ Feb 7, 2018 at 22:50
  • $\begingroup$ Yeah i guess so... But I'm not interested in it being roadworthy. $\endgroup$
    – Uzer
    Feb 7, 2018 at 23:00
  • $\begingroup$ Possible duplicate of Can I drive Elon Musk's Tesla after it's been in space for 100 Years? $\endgroup$ Feb 7, 2018 at 23:32
  • $\begingroup$ @ReactingToAngularVues Does this look better? $\endgroup$
    – uhoh
    Feb 8, 2018 at 2:01
  • 1
    $\begingroup$ @uhoh Good job on the salvage! $\endgroup$ Feb 8, 2018 at 2:34

1 Answer 1


Probably some tens of millions of years. Billions of years appears unlikely. Even in the next million years or so, there is a significant chance of colliding with Earth or Venus:

Research quoted by BBC news reports:

That's the conclusion of an analysis by Czech and Canadian researchers.

They calculated that the roadster has a 6% chance of colliding with Earth and a 2.5% probability of hitting Venus over the next million years.

The corresponding paper:

Hanno Reis, Daniel Tamayo, David Vokrouhlicky. The random walk of cars and their collision probabilities with planets. arXiv:1802.04718:

From the abstract:

We estimate the dynamical lifetime of the Tesla to be a few tens of millions of years.


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